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Changing Metro’s Funding Trajectory

February 10th, 2014 2 comments

The Transportation Planning Board (TPB) estimates that without funding commitments from Congress, the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia for Metro’s ongoing maintenance and core capacity improvements, as many as 32,000 future daily transit riders would be pushed onto the roadways instead. 

In a recent report, the TPB cites that under the current funding trajectory, Metrorail riders will face significant crowding and experience less service reliability in the future.  Critics often cite low forecasts of future Metrorail ridership from the TPB as a reason to avoid committing robust levels of funding for transit.  What they don’t tell you is that the ridership numbers emerging from the travel demand model are manually “capped” so that there is no ridership growth beyond 2020 – the year beyond which current levels of maintenance funding levels expires.  In other words, because regional leaders have not committed to funding transit, those that forecast travel demand have decided to stop forecasting increases in transit usage.  Were it not for this artificial “cap”, travel demand forecasts would show much higher numbers of future transit use.  We all know that such a “cap” ignores the last 10-15 years of increasing transit usage region-wide (performance analysis of the CLRP Gallery Place pm Rush 042310-2362)

Metro’s strategic plan, known as Momentum, proposes a number of core capacity improvements to handle more riders, and offers a plan of initiatives necessary to remove the so-called “transit constraint” placed on the system in 2000Metro 2025, one of the main components of Momentum, includes:

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Categories: In The News Tags: , , ,

RTSP Evaluating and Prioritizing Corridors for High Capacity Transit: Dispatch from TAG Meeting #10

October 4th, 2013 1 comment

This is the second post in a two-part series based Logo_WMATA_RTSP_001 blackon content from the tenth meeting with the Regional Transit System Plan (RTSP) Technical Advisory Group (TAG) that was held in July. The first post focused on our analysis of new Metrorail lines in the core and Virginia. This post is about our approach to identify regionally significant corridors for high capacity transit. 

By 2040, multiple regionally significant travel corridors will need high capacity, high frequency transit to connect people and jobs outside of the core.

As part of the RTSP, we will identify regionally significant corridors where transit priority infrastructure is needed to provide high capacity transit. At the TAG meeting, Metro Planning staff presented a methodology to identify, evaluate, and prioritize these regionally significant corridors. The methodology has evolved since the July meeting and is described below. The actual evaluation and prioritization is still in process.

WMATA RTSP II Corridors Segments 082813

Corridors identified for evaluation for high capacity transit.

 

Since the TAG meeting, we have also conducted one-on-one meetings with each jurisdiction and agency in the RTSP study area to review and gather feedback on the full set of corridors that will be evaluated. Approximately 70 corridors have been identified from:

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L’Enfant Plaza Station Capacity Improvements Study

December 6th, 2012 Comments off

The L’Enfant Plaza Station is one of busiest stations in the Metrorail system and handles thousands of passenger transfers on four of the five Metrorail lines.  It ranks third among all stations in absolute ridership growth over the last five years.

Earlier this year, Metro initiated a station capacity improvements study, similar to previous studies that evaluated the feasibility of station access and capacity improvements and station circulation enhancements at Gallery Pl-Chinatown and Union Stations.  The purpose of this study is to identify and address the physical and operational internal capacity constraints of L’Enfant Plaza Station.  Both short-term and long-term capacity enhancement solutions will be sought with operational improvements and constructability in mind.

Current and Future “Hot-Spots” at L’Enfant Plaza Station Platforms during the AM Peak

In order to assess the current and future conditions within L’Enfant station, Metro has used a pedestrian simulation tool that enables the quantification of crowded conditions.  The maps included here show existing and future condition profiles of the upper and lower level platforms within the station.  Future conditions were estimated using MWCOG/TPB travel demand model, Metrorail ridership growth forecasts and Metro origin-destination data sources.  Cumulative mean density maps help to identify “hot-spots” within the station – areas where high levels of crowding are sustained.

Analysis of current pedestrian activity during the AM peak 15-minute interval showed that the station currently operates at safe levels on both platforms in the morning peak hour, and identified a large volume of transfers between the northbound upper platform where Green and Yellow lines run and the westbound lower platform where Orange and Blue lines operate.   By year 2030, however, these conditions are expected to worsen with growth of transfers.  The levels of crowding in the transfer areas leading to the lower platform intensify due to increased passenger flows and space restrictions adjacent to escalators.  Also, high passenger densities are shown to occur at the westbound Orange and Blue platform during the morning rush hours.

A reversed pattern of crowding is shown between the eastbound lower platform and the southbound upper platform for the returning passengers during the PM peak 15-minute interval.  As expected, conditions worsen with increased passenger flows and transfer activity forecast for 2030 on the southbound upper platform.

Current and Future “Hot-Spots” at L’Enfant Plaza Station Platforms during the PM Peak

Given the existing and future “no-build” scenarios presented here, Metro is currently working to develop short and long-term design alternatives for detailed evaluation.  Stay posted for additional simulation and conceptual design results as they become available.

TAG Meeting #9: RTSP Phase II: Review of Round 1 Scenario Results

November 2nd, 2012 4 comments

In September, we presented to the TAG the results of the first round of scenarios modeled in the second phase of the RTSP study.  Scenarios are defined by a collection of strategies or projects identified in the initial phase of the RTSP.  The four scenarios tested focused on maximizing the existing infrastructure, expanding surface transit, expanding transit in the core, and expanding transit system wide.  The performance of each scenario was evaluated against a set of measures to determine the relative effectiveness of each compared to the baseline scenario, defined by the regional list of projects in the currently adopted Constrained Long Range Plan, and MWCOG Cooperative Forecasts Round 8.0 land use.

Phase II Process Overview: Click to Enlarge

Regional measures such as total transit trips, mode share, vehicle miles traveled, households and jobs within a half-mile of transit, travel time savings, and transit congestion were evaluated to not only determine how well the scenarios performed against each other over the baseline, but to assess how well each satisfied the goals and objectives of the RTSP.  In addition to these broad-based regional measures, the first round of scenario modeling focused on how well each scenario addressed the need to expand capacity within the system core.  Peak period Metrorail link capacity and transfer activity at key core stations were measured against the baseline scenario to determine if the potential build scenarios could provide sufficient capacity to serve future demand, and how well such added capacity could be utilized.

For more information on scenario descriptions, measured results, and key findings download meeting materials: TAG 9 Presentation of Results

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Categories: TAG Tags: , , ,

TAG Meeting #8: Regional Transit System Plan Phase I Review

March 12th, 2012 2 comments

Metro is developing the Regional Transit System Plan (RTSP), a vision of a sustainable, integrated, multimodal, regional transit network for 2040.  Metro staff have recently completed the first phase, and presented a summary to the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) in January.  Phase II is underway, and the proposed approach and initial scenarios to evaluate were also presented to the TAG.

During the initial phase, Metro staff assessed future growth trends and travel-demand patterns throughout the region for the forecast year 2040.  Regional growth, reported by MWCOG Cooperative Forecasts Round 7.2a, shows significant population, household, and employment growth over the next several decades.  This growth has a direct impact on travel patterns around the region.  As a part of Phase I work, Metro staff identified the implications this has for transit.

Forecasts show that with the implementation of the projects included in the 2009 financially constrained long-range plan (CLRP) regional transit trips will grow by 30% by 2040.  Although the regional program of projects in the CLRP results in a transit mode share remaining at only 4% of total person trips, the region will see more than 350,000 new weekday transit trips.  Given the anticipated growth and dispersion of travel, the RTSP focuses on the following long-range issues:

  • Increasing the capacity of the system to serve the region’s employment core;
  • Improving multimodal access to high quality transit;
  • Improving the efficiency and interoperability of the region’s surface transit;
  • Improving connections to Regional Activity Centers;

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TAG Meeting #7: Analysis of Enhanced Surface Transit, Metrorail Extensions, and New Metrorail Lines Through and Around the Core

June 9th, 2011 1 comment

May 5, 2011

In May, we continued to provide the TAG with model results of several strategies aimed to improve surface transit in the region, such as an enhanced priority corridor network, streetcar network, and light rail extensions. This round of modeling also tested new Metrorail lines including a beltway line and new brown line. Finally, additional Metrorail enhancements were considered such as a relocated silver line with a Ballston-Rosslyn bypass, and a new set of extensions to suburban activity centers. The results of these model runs show the impact of each of these strategies on weekday transit boardings by mode, Metrorail boardings by line, regional transit share, regional transit linked trips, as well as an examination of passengers per rail car during the peak hour. The strategies modeled during this round address the need to increase core system capacity, connect to new and emerging markets, and provide priority for and enhancements to surface transit corridors in the region – three of the four goals of the RTSP.

Download the Meeting Materials: TAG_07_Meeting.pdf (PDF, 3.1 MB)

Categories: TAG Tags: ,

Changing Outlook on Regional Growth Trends

May 19th, 2011 1 comment

The Regional Transit System Plan (RTSP) is intended to update the currently adopted Transit System Expansion Plan (TSEP) that was completed in 1999.  In its implementation, the RTSP looks beyond the planning horizon of the TSEP by an additional fifteen years and incorporates updated travel demand, population and employment forecasts for the region.  The following discussion will look at how much ridership growth has occurred over the ten-year period between 1999 and 2009, and will look at changes in the regional growth projections out to 2040 that will shape future demand for transit services.

Changes in Ridership

Figure 1. Change in ridership. Source: NTD

As envisioned in the adopted plan, transit ridership has grown since 1999, and is on the way toward the TSEP goal of doubling ridership by 2025.  Annual transit passenger trips throughout the region have increased by about 30% in the first 10 years of the 25 year planning horizon.  However, this growth in ridership has not been consistent across the region:  close inspection of these data shows that ridership growth is happening at a faster rate on local feeder bus, express bus, and commuter rail services than for regional Metrorail and Metrobus services, although Metro accounts for the majority of the growth in absolute terms.    The growth in ridership on local and commuter transit services highlights the need to create a transit plan that looks beyond the services provided only by Metro and to focus on the region at large.

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TAG Meeting #6: Analysis of Parking Capacity Relief, CLRP Aspirations Land Use & Rail Enhancement Strategies

March 3rd, 2011 4 comments

 

In January 2011 we continued to provide the TAG with model results of several strategies designed to provide more access to transit.  The model results of these strategies highlight the myriad methods that can be employed to meet future transit demand in the Washington metropolitan area.  During this presentation we also presented the proposed RTSP public engagement strategy; a revised project schedule and solicited jurisdictional representatives for additional strategies they would like to see modeled.

TAG Meeting #6 Presentation (PDF)

Implementation of the Current Long Range Plan

January 6th, 2011 5 comments

Metro’s Transit Service Expansion Plan (TSEP) of 1999 is comprised of four major elements that form the backbone of a regional transit system. This post is intended to highlight the status of projects implemented under the two elements of the plan that call for expansion of the region’s fixed-guideway transit system.  The first involves selectively adding stations, entrances, and station capacity to the existing Metrorail system.  Specifically, the plan calls for two new stations, four new station entrances, and expansion of station capacity at four existing stations.  The second element of the Metro’s current plan that emphasizes system expansion focuses on the expansion of fixed-guideway systems – whether the mode is Metrorail, light-rail (LRT), other rail technology or busways.  The areas served by this element of the plan are illustrated on the map shown.  Under this element, the goal is to provide for at least 50-percent expansion of the region’s fixed guideway systems over the 25-year planning horizon.  Below are two tables that outline the status of the station and fixed-guideway projects in the plan.

How would you rate the implementation of the system expansion elements of the 1999 plan?  Do you think the region is on-track to reach the goal to provide for at least 50-percent expansion of the region’s fixed guideway systems set in the 1999 plan?  More importantly, do the projects that are yet to be completed represent the best ones to expand the region’s transit infrastructure over the next 15 or more years?

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Categories: ConnectGreaterWashington Tags:

Metro’s Planning, from the Beginning

December 22nd, 2010 Comments off

In 1967, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority was created under a 1966 interstate compact encompassing the District of Columbia and portions of the State of Maryland and Commonwealth of Virginia, for the purpose of planning, financing, constructing, and operating a comprehensive mass transit system for the Washington Metropolitan Region.  According to Article VI of the Compact the Board shall develop and adopt, and may from time to time review and revise, a mass transit plan for the immediate and long-range needs of the compact region.

An early plan of the Metrorail system, from the online exhibit, Building the Washington Metro.

The Compact guided the development of the original Adopted Regional System (ARS) in 1968, designed to serve the region as forecast for 1990.  Zachary M. Schrag, author of The Great Society Subway, hosts a website including maps and photos of the ARS, as well as an historical account of the building of Metrorail.  As planning and engineering continued over the next 20-plus years, the ARS was reviewed and revised, consistent with the Compact.  By the mid-1990s, planning had been completed for the ARS.  Metro began to look at transit needs beyond those for which the original system had been planned, and to look at a much larger region, as forecast for 2025.   Metro’s latest long-range system plan — the Transit Service Expansion Plan— was adopted in 1999.

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